The lack of unity of Europeans at the top in Poland worried the markets. The IMF refers to the default of Athens.
Divisions within the euro area and the lack of concrete progress on the issue have plunged Greece into turmoil Monday and world stock markets, maddened by the scenario of a default of Athens. A "delay" of continuing the privatization program in Greece can lead the country to "default" on its debt, warned Monday the Permanent Representative International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Greece, Bob Traa. And the meeting of European finance ministers on Friday and Saturday in Poland ended in failure.Divided, they postponed any decision on October the payment of a further tranche of 8 billion euros to Greece, which desperately needs the money to avoid bankruptcy.
"Once again, hopes for new policy initiatives to resolve the debt crisis in the eurozone were violently showered," lamented Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank. Now, "the market is betting on a 98% default of Greece," said Phil Flynn, of PFG Best Research. The reaction of the stock exchanges Monday was unequivocal. At the close, Paris fell 3.00%, 3.17% of Milan, Frankfurt 2.83%, 2.03% in London.
European indices, once again, been sealed by the banks that would be the first victims of failing Greek. The Deutsche Bank dropped 4.54% and 4.11% Italian Intesa Sanpaolo. In France, Societe Generale won 6.70% and 5.48% of BNP Paribas.In New York, the Dow Jones lost 1.57% to 1600 GMT. The announcement by U.S. President Barack Obama plan to further reduce the deficit of 3.000 billion, financed half by an increase in taxes for the rich, did not produce any relief.
Teleconference postponed
Very worried, the markets awaited the outcome of a conference between the Greek government and the Troika representing the country's creditors, namely the European Commisson, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF. First scheduled for mid-day, the conference was delayed about 16h, after the close of European stock. "The quarterly audit of the troika is decisive. If the IMF decides to exit the process, the risk of default of the country will be very large," said Cyril Regnat, an analyst at Natixis.
A default of Greece "is not a working hypothesis" in the euro area, however, assured the French minister of Finance Baroin. Greece must at all costs to demonstrate that it meets its budget commitments, the only way to obtain payment of the next round of international loans. "This is not a working hypothesis, it is not our strategy," he said on the sidelines of a meeting with his counterparts from the African franc zone in Paris. "Our strategy (…) is to operationalize the agreement of July 21" adopted by the euro area to come again in aid to Greece and strengthen the European bailout fund, he added. The Permanent Representative of IMF in Athens, Mr. Traa said Monday morning that additional budgetary savings will be "necessary".
"Privatization has been delayed from the program because politicians can not agree on how to proceed," he said in reference to the privatization program of 50 billion euros by 2015 that Greece is committed. "If you wait (…) the country will go to default," he warned.
"Conditions uncontrollable and painful"
Taking the worst estimates of Athens, he returned the country's return to growth in 2013, anticipating a recession of -5.5% in 2011, and -2.5% in 2012. Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that the week opened "is a very difficult week for the country, for the euro area and for me."Athens announced on Sunday that it would conduct new cost-cutting measures in 2012 to reduce the public sector.
"We must now take historical decisions, otherwise we will have to take soon in uncontrollable and painful conditions," he said, referring to the threat of insolvency of the country. The minister made it a priority "respect for the objective for 2011," involving corrective action of 1.8 billion euros, to enable the country to continue to meet its commitments, including "a primary budget surplus in 2012" . Mr. Venizelos nevertheless felt that Athens should not be used as "scapegoats" facing the "lack of competence in managing the debt crisis" in the eurozone.
As a result of concerns around Greece, the euro Monday accentuated its decline against the dollar: towards 1600 GMT, the euro bought 1.3633 dollars against 1.3797 dollars on Friday night. The price of an ounce of gold fell 3%, investors withdrawing from the yellow metal to cover losses in other markets.