Why the markets are yo-yo? The stock market crash threat he savers? The world will he fall back into another recession? Our responses. Facts: exchanges plunge
For almost three weeks as global stock markets loosen. The CAC 40 has lost 22% since July 22. After a strong rally Thursday, the Paris Stock Exchange Friday widened its losses. Bank stocks were particularly severe since Wednesday because of speculation about a possible loss of the triple A rating of France. Societe Generale, which lost nearly 15% Wednesday, asked the AMF to investigate rumors that she believes she suffered.
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The clap of thunder: the loss of "AAA" American
Standard and Poor's downgraded by one notch on July 5 the U.S. debt rating of "AAA" to "AA +". A historic first for the country. In fact, the agreement reached in extremis August 2 to Congress to raise the ceiling of the debt and avoid default has not satisfied the rating agency.It is estimated that the compromise between Republicans and Democrats is not nearly enough to reduce debt astronomical U.S., which reached 14,300 billion.
Given the position in the global economy of the most powerful and safe haven status of the dollar, the main international reserve currency, the S & P's decision could be devastating for the entire global finance. The announcement did not fail to create a renewed tension in the exchanges.Ironically, investors remain confident in the ability of the United States to honor their debts: U.S. borrowing are still very popular and their rates have not risen.
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The United States lost their triple A, what consequences? "You have to detoxify the rating agencies"
The context of substance: the fears of another recession
The markets are worried about the health of the global economy. As well as one side of the Atlantic than the other, the news is bad. United States doubts about the strength of the economy are stronger every day, with the accumulation of worrying signs. There is talk of increasing the risk of the economy falling back into recession, the "double dip recession." GDP grew by only 1.3% in the first half and unemployment remains very high level of 9.1%.But the S & P's decision to degrade the American note is likely to further seal the U.S. economy. For focusing on the debt problem, it prevents the state to implement the fiscal stimulus that would be needed in the short term to strengthen the recovery. So the Fed that holds the ammunition last, that of monetary stimulus. She has pledged Tuesday to keep rates near zero until 2013 and continue to buy treasury bills as those they would hold to maturity.
In Europe, Spain and Italy posted increases of 0.2% winded and 0.3% in the second quarter. France does no better: After starting the year with a bang, French growth was zero in the second quarter and unemployment started to rise.The global recovery is no longer as strong as it appeared in 2010.
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The contagion of the crisis of debt in the euro area continues
The markets are finally tormented by the fear of contagion from the crisis in Greece to Italy and Spain, heavily indebted, and which together account for 30% of European GDP. Therefore, the rates at which these two countries were borrowing at record levels. In fact, the second Greek rescue plan developed in July is still not enough to reassure markets. Although eager to pass the baton to the relief fund, the ECB has once again agreed to put out the fires and expressed its readiness Sunday to buy the debt if the Spanish and Italian investors withdraw.To make matters worse, the note of Cyprus has been degraded by the three rating agencies. According to Fitch, the island now needs a rescue package of the EU.
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