"Rather than the Made in France, doing a European protectionism"
Made in France is particularly popular in this pre-election period. For Adrien de Tricornot co-author of "Inevitable protectionism" is both inadequate and cons-productive for the country reindustrialise. Interview. But the tertiary sector of the labor market in France is also accompanied by a sharp drop in the industrial sector. Occupations exposed to international competition are the most exposed. Metallurgy and should lose, according to forecasts of CAS, 40 000 jobs. Made in France is particularly popular in this pre-election period. Almost all candidates have made a strategic focus of their program. Why?
In contact with opinion and their voters, candidates understand the concerns that cause deindustrialization. They are therefore obliged to provide answers, more or less satisfactory elsewhere. But behind this reaction a bit demagogic, candidates are especially becoming aware that the trade deficit is causing the budget deficit, and not vice versa. Clearly, that our problems are not related to excessive public spending but the growing industrialization of France. This is reassuring since the diagnosis is correct. Unfortunately the answers thereto are not up to par.
Why? Promote French production is not a good starting point?
This is both superficial and cons-productive. Superficial, because it does not respond to the initial problem: it's not a label or an annuity tricolor French product that we will reach reindustrialise France. Cons-productive or even dangerous, because it leads us to withdraw into ourselves when we are part of a package called the European Union. Our priority must be to bring together our models rather than opposing them. Or give the advantage to the Franco-French products require to ultimately recover from the borders between us and our European neighbors. Suffice to say that we would lose 50 years of progress and of European integration.
VAT Social Nicolas Sarkozy seem to you more able to answer the question of de-industrialization of France?
A tariff intelligent European borders seems a more appropriate response, although more difficult to implement. Anyway, create a social VAT at this time of unemployment and low growth seems particularly dangerous. Taxing consumption will lead to an immediate compression of demand, which is obviously not desirable. Conversely, the success of the device in terms of labor cost is far from clear. For the measurement to be as efficient as possible, it would take a broad base and a strong increase in VAT, which is the opposite of what the government proposes. Therefore, it seems wiser to focus on other ways to offset the decline in the cost burden as the increase in CSG for example, or the tax on financial transactions.
Germany has set up successfully …
It's time to stop with the myth of the German model. German competitiveness is not due to labor costs, but its strong specialization in heavy industry. Indeed, the country has managed to turn to high-end industry and is now enjoying growth in inequality in the world, by building machines from Chinese factories. Moreover, the German population is very different from its French neighbor, giving it the moment a comparative advantage. Anyway I think the comparison is irrelevant between the two countries. More generally, moreover, the manipulation of foreign models, often in politics, most often leads to an impoverishment of the economic debate. Remember when in the year 2000, Germany put Ireland and Britain on a pedestal …
In your book "Inevitable protectionism", you feel that the only answer to our competitiveness problem is protectionism, why?
For years, employment and value added of manufacturing French, European and U.S. are in freefall. For years, the growth of the financial system helped to hide this reality. The use of public and private debt indeed allowed to sustain growth. But the crisis of 2007 brought down the masks: after the financial bubble burst, it became impossible to restore growth. In a way or we must therefore find ways of production.
See also the discussion of Expansion: Is a new protectionism?
How?
The great ideology of free trade, still largely dominant, lulled us into the illusion that global competition could be pure and perfect, and it would lead to lower prices for people, and enrichment of the most poor. In reality, this never happened, and very quickly, new forms of protectionism (unfair) appeared. This is for example the case of the Chinese currency, now largely undervalued, and against which it is impossible to compete! It is also the case for taxation which allows some countries to attract the wealth of others. Faced with this terrible situation two possibilities: either we wait idly by our bankruptcy or they were countered by strong safeguards, but transparent and fair.
What concrete steps do you propose?
We propose to set up barriers at the borders of Europe and more generally to regionalize trade in coherent sets. The idea is to increase the price of imports from countries that do not meet a number of tax rules, social environment. At the social level, for example, one can imagine a system where we would tax the product if wage growth does not follow the increase in productivity. Thus, if the difference between the salary increase of Chinese textile worker and the average gain in productivity of the company is 15%, 15% tax on the product until the gap is not reduced. To avoid paying customs duties, the company's interest to raise wages. This can be transposed at the environmental level: all products whose manufacture has not met the criteria of the Kyoto Protocol for example could be taxed. To be completely concrete, we tried to do the math, a role for monetary dumping: on his arrival in Europe, a Chinese textiles would be taxed to the tune of at least 50%.
Europe seems you ready?
It will be long and complicated but not impossible. Especially Germany defends its interests tooth and nail, but is aware that she eminently need the euro area, the main destination of its exports. Moreover, in the European treaties, customs duties are primarily decided by qualified majority, which offers greater flexibility. However we are well aware that such measures will be implemented in a snap. It is only time to think, the risk that not only the political extremes seize the issue and distract.
Might there be not to antagonize our trading partners?
Today no one can move from Europe as a trading partner, nor the U.S. nor China, which have also not the same reservations that we resort to protectionism. Moreover, it seems that for some of our partners, our lack of reaction is analyzed almost as a sign of weakness and decadence of the West. That is why they will not be surprised to witness the awakening of Europe! When Barack Obama has increased tariffs on Chinese tires, it affected relations between the two countries for a time, and then exchanges came away with renewed vigor, as tariffs for that matter! That's why it's time to stop stigmatizing a priori protectionism, which is not comparable as such to the war or border closures as would have us believe the advocates of liberalism …